The autosomal results for this firs contact were "no match". Not matching is hard to gauge because it's possible for genetic relatives to not match each other at all. When you don't match a close relative that can be a red flag, but not matching someone who shares a relative in the 1700s is more likley.
I described the layers of expectation for the Y results like this:
In layers of expectations, I would expect them to be a good match to the other tested Elmer branches. I would hope that they might share one of my variations from the Elmer "norm".
You better believe that I was holding my breath looking at that Y match. He was definitely a good match to the group but he was still two markers off from me! At that point, my heart kind of sank. All the Elmers who have tested beyond the first twelve are a minimum of two away from me and it's the same two every time.
I carry a one off mutation at DYS449 and DYS567. FTDNA lists those two places as likely mutations at 37 STRs for people who are related, but their stipulation is that they also share a surname. I do not share a surname.
I was stunned though to find that the Elmer I suspect is on my Y line shares my mutation at DYS449. He mismatches me in two spots and he mismatches the other Elmers in two spots (one of them being the spot that matches me).
Time for some visuals. First up is the Y 12. I've got the men organized by their apparent or documented branch of the Elmer family through Edward Elmer's sons John, Edward2 and Samuel. I put myself with L (gray bar near bottom) in the Ed2 category. Fairly similar at 12 we have most of the telltale cumberland markers from the cumberland B modal (green bar at bottom). The modal for the larger group in Z18 is the green bar above.
Two of the documented John lines have some interesting mutations on normally slow moving values.
In the second set, everyone has the telltale cumberland B 458.2. What grabbed me is that where I expected a mismatch on DYS449 like all the other Elmers and the modal for cumberland and the modal for Z18, I now have a match! Both L and I are 29 at DYS449. So L matches me where the others don't. What is odd here is that L has a mismatch with me because he's broken away from all the Elmers on GATA-H4 which is usually a more stable STR. So where he mismatches me here..he mismatches everyone.
Last set. Again an odd break away for the "John" line Elmers on some slow moving values and they have also moved away from cumberland and Z18. The big orange 18 is me. Here I mismatch all the Elmers still along with the Cumberland and Z18 modals. The final DYS463 value is included to show those that have tested for it. We have one John, one Samuel and if I can be counted one Edward2 showing a 23 there against type for both cumberland and Z18.
One thing I want to note is that the John group seems to be wild. They mutate away from each other. They have standard Elmer markers in common but at 37 they don't seem to have some "John" pattern.
Meanwhile the Samuel group is super super stable. They form the core group to compare others to. They have the most STRs in common with everyone.
The Edward2 group, well...
I've spent a lot of years with my results, trying to gain value from what I have. I feel like I've earned some good returns. This is not perfect, but if my suspicions are correct, L and I meet up at Hezekiah Elmer born 1686 the son of Edward Elmer and Rebecca Fitch and grandson of Edward Elmer.
There is a lot of time there to gather mutations and the "John" group shows how much variation there can be. I am most interested though in where L and I are similar. Not just wildly mutating by ourselves, we have a mutation from the "norm" in common.
L could have randomly gotten the 29 at DYS449, but I'm going to take it anyway. I didn't randomly recruit L. I picked him because I suspected he and I were on the same line and I was hoping he would share one of my variants from the other Elmers... and he does. That would mean that Hezekiah or Edward2 is the originator of our 29 there. My Elmer mismatch at DYS576 and L's really odd mismatch at GATA-H4 would then be marks of our individual lines at some point after that.
I was concerned about trying to match up with someone who was that far back. There isn't a lot of time between Edward1 and Hezekiah. Mutations can happen anywhere at any time, but still only a couple of generations from the source and I'm hoping for a common STR that is not shared by the majority of Elmers! The thing is...I got it. I actually got it.
He has one of my mutations but not the other, he's part way there, just like someone who shared a very old common ancestor with me.
One way to feel better about it would be to get another person related to Hezekiah tested to see if they also carry the 29. What if they did not though? Mutation is not a one way street. G in the "John" Elmers has mutated back to the old Z18 modal twice! A member of the Hezekiah branch might drop the 29 in favor of some other value.
Another way would be upgrading both L and I to 67 and 111 to see if we maintain the closeness.
Yet a third way, and the one I might save up my pennies for, is to run both of us through Big Y to see which SNPs we share and how they layer with other Elmers who have done it.
Leaving off on a hopeful note. I have a good autosomal result from my targeted Elmore family and a nice Y match on their line back to Edward Elmer. I may even have identified one STR that we could assign to an ancestor.
That is not too shabby.
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