Big Y Cluster Bomb and Thoughts about Migration

It's kind of hard to believe it's been a few years since I posted on the 458.2 break up of the Cumberland cluster in the R-Z18 project. I figured it's time to go forward a bit. Look at new members on each side of that divide and think about our Big Y results so far.

Data is coming in fast

Big Y data is coming in very fast now, with loads of new SNPs to map. A process that used to take years is happening in a few months and the volunteer admins of our Y DNA groups are being presented with new information all the time. Joining a Y haplogroup project is one easy way to stay informed and learn more about your group and what next steps you may want to take.

A Cumberland cluster (DF95) person is lucky to fall under several projects. In order of inheritance down the family tree:

• R1b All Subclades
• R1b-U106 (S21)
• R-Z18 and all Subgroups

All the groups are FTDNA groups but they also have their own separate websites or forums that you can get to from their groups page.

The Timeline

The U106 group has been putting together different age ranges for the SNPs below U106 based on Big Y data and a lot of math that I don't completely understand. I know that it's complicated and that there are several methods and also that it's very hard to know things for certain so everything is done at "confidence levels". 

So a huge caveat, as this new post proves, nothing is set in stone and I didn't do any of the work to get these age estimates.

So let's begin with U106.

Here is a google map pinpoint for the oldest U106 positive male (labeled Rise98) found in Lilla Beddinge Sweden. Listed as being from the Battle Axe culture and aged between 2275 and 2032 BC. It was interesting to find a U106 sample in southern Sweden, but I think everyone in U106 circles was just happy to find one in Europe. So far U106 samples in ancient DNA have been hard to come by and age ranges are all estimated.

It would be somewhere in this time period that Z18 also appeared on the scene. Here are a couple of nice maps of Europe between 2500BC and 1500BC from timemaps.com:

In 2013 I was looking at a world map for Z18 that started around 1000BC. Today I'm looking closer to 2200BC. That puts the origin point in time for Z18 not very far from the origin of it's parent U106 (estimated at about 2400BC). So the two maps above pretty much cover that ground.

I'm going to diverge a bit further from the comparisons I made in 2013.

Then I did a pretty broad comparison for the different groups with some migration patterns that seemed to fit them. With time, come new results.

For instance, when I looked at the East Anglia Cluster in 2013 it was easy to see the movements of the Anglo Saxons. It probably doesn't negate that movement but they have widened their scope to include someone from Sweden and Poland in their ranks, making their range similar to the Cumberland cluster.

When looking at the current age ranges from Big Y tests for the different SNPs that define the East Anglia Cluster, Polish Cluster (which contains two men from Switzerland) and the Cumberland Cluster, they all appear to crop up at about the same time right around 1300BC and then branch out from there.

The other striking thing (to me anyway) from the Big Y testing was that, so far, these clusters seem to branch right off the root Z18. Time and testing may change that but so far, these clusters seem to be in their own silos, independent of one another for a long long time. I had wondered if we would see some hidden ties to each other through big Y but that does not seem to be the case. Meanwhile, our much older brother Z372 and it's child L257 have lots of branching and layering.

Each cluster has grown and added new locations and variations, their home ranges definitely overlapped at different points (especially in Poland it seems like), but they also seem somewhat more like lonely little islands of Y DNA that sat in a cold sea for about a thousand years waiting to break out.

Here is a map of 1500 to 1000BC along with a description from Wikipedia of what was going on in about 1300BC:

c. 1300 BC, the Indo-European cultures of Central Europe (among them Celts, Italics and certainly Illyrians) change the cultural phase conforming to the expansionist Urnfield culture, starting a quick expansion that brings them to occupy most of the Balkans, Asia Minor, where they destroy the Hittite Empire(conquering the secret of iron smelting), NE Italy, parts of France, Belgium, the Nederlands, NE Spain and SW England. (taken from the Bronze Age at Wikipedia)

Given that U106 was already in Sweden (at least visiting) a thousand years before this, I'm going to suppose that our Z18 clusters were hanging out with the "Teutonic Peoples" there, living the high life of the Nordic Bronze age. That's a guess though. 

Meet the Cumberlands

Here is a pinpoint map of the Cumberlands that are 458.2 negative. They're expected to be the slightly older group as one of their men originated the 458.2 and all the 458.2 plus men inherit that from him. You'll see that I highlighted one there in Norway. That is a new testers since 2013. My old map skirted Denmark and only included the Netherlands and Germany on the continent. 

This is that same map with the 458.2 positive men layered in blue. Never mind the different shapes for a moment, just notice that their ranges are not that different now that we have more testers. The 458.2 negative men still haven't broken into Denmark or Poland, but that could be a matter of time. As always, I notice that the child covers more ground and is more prolific than the parent.

Now we can look at the shapes. For the moment there is only one 458.2 negative person who has tested Big Y and they haven't shared their results. So we only have the information from the 458.2 positive men to work with. 

Both 458.2 positive and negative are typified by DF95 and CTS12023, but no one is certain exactly where they part ways. 

In that map the stars, diamonds and squares represent big Y tested Cumberland Cluster families. In Big Y testing all the 458.2 men shared 14 or 15 SNPs with each other, not shared by anyone else. Without any variation it's hard to tell which came before what. The age estimate was based on a single SNP from that group of 15 and it was dated at about 1242 BC (not too far from the origin time of some of the other clusters). Also, the other Z18 big Y groups seemed to have long runs of common SNPs like this. To me that suggests either a bias in testing (not enough testers yet) or a pinch point where all of us are fairly recently (in the big picture of humanity) related to one man..whose buddies may have petered out.

The Blue Stars

In the second map the blue star in Norway and in Ireland represent two men who leave the rest of the crowd right there at those 15 shared SNPs and go their own way. This split in the Cumberland Big Y is (for the moment) marking the oldest Cumberland Ys. Now we have a point in time and a couple of locations for a beginning. Although the estimate for the SNP was in the 1200s BC, the estimate for the date of a last common ancestor for everyone is much closer in time at about 250 BC. 

The Blue Squares and Diamonds

I'm lumping these two together because the blue squares and blue diamonds continue together for another 4 or 5 SNPs. The one picked for aging is estimated at 58 AD while the most recent common ancestor is possibly as close as 380 AD. Beyond this, the blue squares and blue diamonds go off to form their own groups with their own SNPs and layers.

What is interesting here is that (as luck would have it) we had at least two people from each group (squares and diamonds). Unlike the split for the blue stars where they just part ways, these two groups continue for several more SNPs each. 

For the time being one group is hanging around the U.K. while the other is split between the Netherlands and Poland.  That second group (the diamonds) is very interesting because so many of the Z18 clusters contain Polish recruits.  In our cluster the Polish recruit splits off later (closer to us in time) than the recruit from Norway or Ireland. 

You can see the tale I'm spinning here is similar to the one from 2013. I'm still thinking of a nice central jumping off point for all these people..maybe in that "teutonic peoples" zone. The Scandinavians are great movers of people and I'm still thinking we hitched a ride with them to the Netherlands and Poland and England.

It will be hard to wait for more big Y testing from other groups. Do the Swiss in the Polish cluster form their own group away from their Polish cousin? Is the Polish tester in the East Anglia group older than the others or younger? How about their tester from Sweden? What do the other Cumberland cluster Polish testers look like? How about the 458.2 negative tester from Norway? How does he stack up to the 458.2 positive Norway tester? Where does the 458.2 guy from Denmark fit in?

Big Y has the power to answer so many questions...for a price. Looking at all the new information coming in, I'm sure a revision for this one will be necessary in a matter of months rather than years. 

Adventures in Big Y and YSEQ

Today I sent my kit back to YSEQ.

I first dipped a toe in the water at YSEQ when I used their "Wish a SNP" feature for my Elmer friends. For one dollar, you can wish for a testable SNP and they will examine it and order the primers for it.

Very nice when you're digging into "family" level SNPs that are of little interest to the larger companies.

Why YSEQ and Big Y

The simple economic truth is that not everyone can afford FTDNA big Y or FGC Y Elite test to be able to identify new SNPs. So, we're attempting to get key players to run the bigger more expensive tests that "blaze the trail" and discover new SNPs that might be valid for the family, with follow up "budget friendly" tests for others through companies like YSEQ.

In the long run we hope to build a panel of SNPs for any Y tester that wanted to figure out which branch of the "Edward Elmer" family they fall on. Also we'll end up with a basic list of SNPs that belong to Edward. They will be the SNPs shared by all the Y testers. Those could be added to a panel of SNPs to take back to England.

What We Expect

Here is a quick chart that shows the Y lines and what we expect to find based on current STR testing. This is where we think everyone will be positioned in the tree when all is said and done. Please forgive my ms word charts. Click them for the enlarged view.

Sons of Samuel

We're currently waiting on the the big Y test from "R1" to add a "Known Tree" counterpart to "L2". These two tests form known pillars. We're missing the middle known tree pillar from "G1" at this point, but we intend to pursue it in the future.  

Brick wall testers L1 and M1 are expected to be related to R1. Likely through Samuel Elmer's son Deacon John Elmer. 

Brick wall M1 was our first big Y tester and blazed the trail for most of the SNPs we have today. He currently has four testable SNPs all to himself. We call them singletons because only one person has them at this time. 

We think we will find that R1 and M1 share some of M1's "singleton" SNPs. Making them private to that branch of the Elmer family. Depending on how many they share, we may be able to guess at a most recent common ancestor. L1 then plans to follow up with YSEQ testing of R1 and M1's shared private SNPs along with their singletons to discover which tester they are most closely related to.  

Sons of Edward 2.

L2 was our second big Y tester. He matched M1 on four testable SNPs that for the time being only belong to the Elmer family.  He currently has one testable SNP to himself. I'm Mike Thompson in that chart. I expect to be related to L2 through Hezekiah Elmer. 

I tested for one SNP that was shared by the Knowlton family (A2277), four SNPs shared by our two Elmer testers (M1 and L2) so far (A2278, A2280, A2283, A2284) and the one singleton SNP of L2 (A5920).

This can all get kind of confusing when we've got all these numbers and letters floating around.

How About Another Picture

Visualizing this tree another based on SNPs. I added some little circles of color to represent SNPs. We're assuming that Sam, John and Ed2 are pretty much like their dad, and get a yellow ball. Because of that, everyone gets a yellow ball. We all get those from Ed1. What I'm hoping for is that somewhere in there either Ed2 or Hezekiah added another SNP..the red ball. Then L2 and I will carry the red ball. It will be private to us and mark our branch of the family.

Along the same lines we're following the sons of Samuel. Our thought is that they may branch off at his son John, but we're not sure. I've added a purple ball in common for them. Some descendants of Samuel also have an orange ball, but not all of them. In that way, we can differentiate the branches coming from Samuel.

Of course, I'll be excited to learn anything I can, but my expectation is that I will share at a minimum the one SNP shared by the Knowltons and the four SNPs the other Elmer testers have. That is the yellow ball in the picture above. Everyone gets it.

My bet is that I will share that single singleton from tester L2, (the red ball) but the odds are not in my favor with only one singleton to test. To put it in context, M1 has four good chances to match R1 and define that they are on the same branch of the family tree. I have only one chance.

The Knowlton Family, Unknowns and the Importance of Pillars

You may have noticed that I tested an SNP shared by the Knowlton family.

The Knowltons have joined us in Big Y testing. They actually share two SNPs with the Elmers, but I could only make one testable at YSEQ. They are also included in the yellow ball in my previous chart in that their SNP was carried by Edward Elmer 1. That's the idea anyway.

The Knowltons are the closest Y relatives of the Elmers at 67 markers. The big Y test one of them completed shows that they are close relatives to the Elmers but we're not certain exactly how close. So our YSEQ and Big Y testing should help put their matches in context as well.

We've got two Elmers Big Y tested. How can one more test put the Knowltons in context and why would there be any question about it?

Well, Big Y tests the area of the Y chromosome that FTDNA thinks will have the most chance of success. So they will  get a lot of great SNPs, but not all of them that exist. The Knowltons may share many more than two SNPs with the Elmers, but we will not know it.

Because we don't know the relationship of  Big Y M1 and future big Y R1 based on a family tree, we can't be completely sure that they are the most closely related. Even though they have all the same STRs in common. STRs suggest a relationship, but SNPs are the mark of it.

M1 and L2 share the most SNPs in common at this point in time. The others (including me) just aren't tested yet and with unknowns there can be lots of surprises.

So our Big Y and YSEQ SNPs may show us a completely different path than we expect.

Expecting the Unexpected

Here is an "unexpected" SNP based tree that could include the Knowlton family. If it were to turn out that M1 and L2 were more closely related than expected then the tree could play out more like this, with the Knowltons included because the new base "yellow" ball is really the two SNPs they share.

The reference docs are pretty blurry in the 1600s and NPEs happen. It's possible that John Knowlton (who all the Y STR matched Knowltons go back to) was really an Elmer adopted by the Knowlton family. The two SNPs shared with the Knowltons may just be the Edward Elmer SNPs we're looking for.

The key thing is that without testing R1 or G1 and comparing them to L2, we don't know what the structure of the tree is.  R1 and L2 as "pillars" of our structure will help define what those early 1600s SNPs were and in doing so, help place everyone involved.

Notes About the The Testing Process

So far, FTDNA's Big Y has been pretty darn easy. Most of these men already had kits from Y STR and earlier SNP testing, so ordering an upgrade was really a matter of saving the money and waiting for a sale. Like falling off a log really. They identified an issue with M1's stored sample early on and sent him a new kit in no time. The results also came back quicker than expected.

We have relied heavily on the volunteer admins at the U106 group and the Z18 group to analyze the results and give us some direction because FTDNA's Big Y results matching has some issues.

I took those SNPs that FTDNA provided and our Y groups analyzed from M1 and L2 kits and added them to YSEQ through the Wish a SNP process. YSEQ has been fast and responsive. They assigned me a user account much like FTDNA did. Their website is not as polished but..really it's the results and flexibility I'm after.

Their swab kit for my SNP test order came in the mail within a week of the purchase. Mailing it back was a minor adventure because I've never mailed a package to Germany. Less than the cost of a lunch at McDonald's later, my kit is on it's way. I have read on forums that they are lightening quick on turn around for these kits, so I'm very hopeful I'll have my results fairly soon.

Fathers Day Y mile markers

What you can see from the Ed Elmer blog I threw together is that we've been doing a bunch of Y work between the Elmers and Knowltons. This weekend..ironically or not Father's day weekend, we launched two more Y probes to add to the results from earlier tests this year.

For the Elmers we have one big Y test that will give direction to the group. We had one test down the line of Edward Elmer 2 and one test from an Elmer whose tree is stuck around the time of the revolution. This new test is down the line of Samuel Elmer. With two known lines from Edward Elmer 1 through sons Edward 2 and Samuel, we should be able to get a nice list of those SNPs that belong to Ed 1 and which continue down individual lines. Triangulating the Y.

It will also help place the Knowltons in the scope of the Y family. The Knowltons share two SNPs that no other tester has shared yet. Depending on how this test shakes out, it could help place them as relatives on this side of the pond or back in England.

It is a very big deal for this small group of men who have come a long, long way.

I hit my own milestone this weekend too.  Along the way, I've made the Elmer related SNPs testable at YSEQ. I ordered my own test there, specifically looking to match up with my Elmer counterpart who is related to Hezekiah Elmer in 1680. That's the line I expect to be down given the research I've been able to do.

 I won't get a list of my own SNPs to track like the Elmer men did, but I haven't been able to find an Elmore man farther down my expected line to test anyway. I could also run the other next gen tests at some point in the future. I'm just impatient to know if I'm on the right path and if the signs are pointing in the right direction and I'd like to have my results when we're discussing the results of the group.

I hope to get some definitive answers to a lot of questions in the next few months. Some very personal and some on a grander scale. I'm also looking forward to taking what I've learned and applying it to the U152 Thompsons.

On father's day, thinking of things I'd like to continue to do with Y DNA:

• upgrade the U152 Thompson kit to 37 or 67. I think I will tackle this next.
• get our Jensen Z18 tester from Denmark tested for some of these new SNPs if not big Y itself. 
• create a panel at YSEQ that we could use for Elmer/Elmore men in England to try to recruit overseas. 
• find that elusive Elmore man related to James Walsworth Elmore who is interested in getting a Y test to definitively back up my assertion that James is related to Edward Elmer 1.